Saturday, 11 April 2015

Periscope and Meerkat lead the way on creating a new kind of shared experience

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"What if you could see through the eyes of a protester in Ukraine? Or watch the sunrise from a hot-air balloon in Cappadocia? It may sound crazy, but we wanted to build the closest thing to teleportation."

Rather poetically (and much quoted), this is how new live video streaming app provider Periscope describe their service - one of two new high profile launches of live video streaming apps with the other being Meerkat.

This is not a new market, apps such as LiveStream and UStream have been around for a while.  However, with increasing 4G coverage and investment from the likes of Twitter (they recently purchased Periscope for just under $100m 2 weeks after it launched), this sector is hotting up as the next big thing.

Meerkat founder Ben Rubin describes the trend as "spontaneous togetherness” and this to me is the most interesting aspect of it.

In a media world where everything is available at the touch of a button; TV can be paused and rewound; films are available on demand (and sometimes before they're even in the cinema); the “magic” of TV has been lost.  That shared experience we used to have when a new TV show aired is increasingly becoming extinct.  With so much choice, technology and platforms, people are watching it at different times or even not watching it at all.

Indeed, if you’re in the Millennial Generation, there’s a good chance you never even tuned in.  

Something that hasn’t really made the headlines, is that in 2015 there has been a double digit decline in traditional TV viewing for millennials (18-34).  This has been happening since 2012 with a fall of around 4 percent year on year.  However at the end of 2014 this fell an amazing 10.6 percent.  Overall this has translated as almost 20% fewer young adults watching traditional TV than 4 years ago.

Alan Wurtzel, NBCUniversal’s audience research chief is quoted as saying:-

“The change in behavior is stunning. The use of streaming and smartphones just year-on-year is double-digit increases […] I’ve never seen that kind of change in behavior.”

This doesn’t mean of course that they’re not watching video content, it’s just not the content that the media industry wants them to watch.  Instead, they are reportedly watching 11.3 hours of “free” online video per week and interestingly the major ways young people are selecting online content to watch is based firstly on content that has been viewed/liked by a lot of people (59%) and secondly content that was sent by “someone I respect” (58%).  

So no surprise - peoples viewing habits are now more likely to be influenced by their personal social network.

This is where both Periscope of Meerkat have a distinct advantage.  They both tie into twitter as a means of making people aware of live broadcasts and given that tweets are heavily influenced by the people you’ve chosen to follow, these broadcasts are more likely to be relevant to the viewers.

But it goes further than this.  These are not static video feeds like you see on Youtube, instead the audience is positively encouraged to participate, to help direct the production.  

In an article on the Verge they reported that "In their early tests [of Meerkat], they found something delightful in the interactions between the broadcaster and their audience: the audience always wound up helping direct the broadcast with their comments, to the general enjoyment of everyone involved”… and this is where the “spontaneous togetherness” comes in.

There is something powerful about being in the moment; this ephemeral experience which can only happen at that time, which places you at the centre of the action, allows you to take part and which happens within your social network - this could be a truly compelling mix.

Having played with Periscope, it’s funny how much it differs from a traditional pre-recorded video stream.  Even when the vloggers have created tailored content for their audience and speak to them like a personal friend, its still not as compelling as actually being in the moment.

It’s like we’ve gone back to that shared experience, but at a hyper relevant level.

So whats the implications for loyalty marketing?  Well I’ve no doubt that marketers generally will find ways to create “brand engagement” and “brand experiences” through live videos - whether product launches, celebrity moments or just regular brand ambassadors creating content to watch and interact with.

What I think will be interesting though is if that personal connection - that in the moment experience - becomes as common place as the Facebook wall-post or the Tweet.  If that happens, people are going to have greater expectations of their interactions, whether personal or business.  Imagine what online banking looks like through live video streaming or being able to access customer service at your online retailer through video.

In fact, stop imagining it as that’s what Amazon has already done with it’s Mayday button on the Kindle Fire, launched in late 2013.

Described by CEO Jeff Bezos as “the greatest feature we’ve ever made”, they may truly have hit on something at the beginning of a new trend.  As consumers are conditioned by apps like Periscope and Meerkat to want “real” connections, you can imagine them increasingly seeking out brands that provide a similar experience.

Amazon is reportedly fielding 75% of questions from Kindle Fire customers through Mayday with questions ranging from how to beat a level on Angry Birds to singing Happy Birthday to a new Kindle Fire owner.

Loyalty is all about customer experience and it would seem that what Periscope, Meerkat (and Amazon) are showing is that a new kind of customer experience can be created.  One centred around real moments of truth in real time.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Tuesday, 13 January 2015

Loyalty - Building a better mousetrap

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Ask someone how many loyalty programs they are a member of and they can probably name 3 or 4 big programs they use regularly. However, in the US, loyalty program membership is now over 23 per household and between 2008 and 2012 it grew by 10 percent per year. These are great numbers until you realise that only around 1/3 of these memberships are being actively used.

More worryingly, a study by McKinsey back in 2013 suggested that for many companies, those with loyalty programs actually underperformed vs the market with “loyalty-focused companies surveyed [growing] revenues at a weighted-average rate of 4.4 percent per year – compared to 5.5 percent for companies with lower loyalty focus.”

This doesn’t mean loyalty doesn’t work – it does and McKinsey acknowledge that. What it does mean though is that like anything, there is no quick fix; no silver bullet. A “me too” loyalty program is likely to add little long term value if it isn’t designed well and there are all too many of these in the market.

However, what is interesting is that when talking about what a good loyalty program looks like, the discussion frequently looks at program features like partnerships or reward value without really considering what actually makes a loyalty program work – and why they also fail.

If we can understand what makes someone use and continue to use a loyalty program - what’s going on in their brain - then we can truly design a program that works harder and is more rewarding.  As the famous quote says “Build a better mousetrap and the world will beat a path to your door"

A good place to start with this mousetrap is back in the month of May, 1938, in a cold Minnesota that had just experienced one of its heaviest snowfalls ever for that month with over 12 inches of snow falling in just one day. That same month, psychologist B F Skinner published his now famous book called The Behaviour of Organisms – and it’s that book, published almost 80 years ago which provides some answers as to both why loyalty programs work, and why they don’t.

Before discussing that though, it’s worth also considering something happening in the here and now.

Consider for a moment how often you check your phone for new email or to check your Facebook account. Whatever number you come up with, you’ll probably be way off the mark because half the time, we do it almost on auto-pilot. One article suggests we check our phones over 1500 times per week - thats more than once every 5 minutes during waking hours.

It’s not just the checking however, we are also at the beck and call of these devices.  

A research study by Loughborough University in the UK found that people, on average, take just 1 minute and 44 seconds to respond to a new email notification - with 70% of these alerts getting a reaction within 6 seconds and 85% within 2 minutes.

We talk about the mobile phone being the remote control of life… it could equally be said that the mobile phone is actually the remote control of us.

What this all means however is that we are essentially re-wiring our brains.  Our brains are wired to protect us from danger or to help us survive; when we see something in the corner of our eye we respond. This is known as our orientating responses and these are now constantly being triggered by the ping of a mobile or the flash of a notification meaning we’re becoming ever quicker at responding and anticipating a response.

There is more to this phenomenon however and this is where that cold May in Minnesota comes in.  

The book published by B F Skinner introduced the world to the concept of operant conditioning.  Simply put, operant conditioning describes any voluntary behaviour that is shaped by its consequences and it implies a creature (including you and I) will repeat an activity that produces positive rewards.  Underpinning this operant conditioning are a number of reinforcements which, when repeated, serve to further in-grain the behaviour.

Skinner based his research on observing animals such as rats and pigeons, which when placed into a specific environment (known as the Skinner Box), would carry out a repeated behaviour based on the rewards offered (i.e. press a lever to get food).  Using this environment, Skinner was able to vary how and when the reward was delivered in order to measure the ability to influence and maintain ongoing behaviour - called a positive reinforcer.

From this research, Skinner came up with three schedules of reinforcement, defined as continuous, interval and ratio based.

  • Continuous - Defined as a constant delivery of reinforcement for an action; every time a specific action is performed, the subject instantly and always recieves a reinforcement.  With this type, the reinforced behaviour is prone to extinction and the behavior can become inconsequential (i.e., producing neither favorable nor unfavorable consequences) and so starts to occur less frequently
  • Interval - Based on the time intervals between reinforcements.  These can be fixed time periods (FI) or variable (VI), with the variable being based on an average time that has passed since the last reinforcement.  Both of these are not directly linked to the persons actual behaviour and so typically produce slow, methodical responses.
  • Ratio - Can be based on the behaviour of the person and be fixed or variable too.  The fixed ratio (FR) is based on a specific number of responses (e.g. Coffee Stamp Card), whereas the variable ratio (VR) is based on a particular average number of responses (e.g Slot machines - pays out 10% of the time on average, but there is no guarantee when).  

Schedule of reinforcement

It’s these reinforcement schedules that are key to understanding why we’re so quick to react and respond to that email notification - and why some loyalty programs work and others do not.

Simplistically, where the reinforcement schedule is predictable, whether by being continuous or at set intervals, then the behaviour becomes in Skinners words “extinct” - so its passive and inconsequential and decreases or stops altogether over time.  On the other hand, where the reinforcement is on a variable ratio - where both the timing and the value can’t be predicted - then we get the highest rates of response and the the higher the ratio, the higher the response rate tends to be.

In the book The End of Absence: Reclaiming What We've Lost in a World of Constant Connection, author Michael Harris highlights this saying "Animals, including humans become obsessed with reward systems that only occasionally and randomly give up the goods.  We continue the conditioned behaviour for longer when the reward is taken away because surely the sugar lump is coming up next time."  This “variable interval reinforcement schedule” is really the critical factor in repeatable, ongoing behaviour.

This outcome can be seen in how we interact with email as discussed previously.  One behavioural psychology training course describes this effect with email saying:-

"Receiving a message serves as a reinforcer, or reward for, checking. You might check your email at 9:00 a.m. and have 5 new messages, at 11:00 a.m. and have none, and then at 3:00 p.m. and have 7. As long as you periodically continue to receive messages, your checking behavior will continue; however, this behavior can be influenced by the number of messages received. If you don't receive any messages for 5 days, you may check less often. On the contrary, if you receive several messages each time you check your email, you will probably check more often. In this case, your behavior is an effect of variable-interval schedules of reinforcement. You receive a reward (new messages) for a behavior (checking your email), and the reward is presented on a variable schedule (you can't predict when it is coming)."

This is also something that the gambling industry relies on to keep punters coming. Co-Author of the book Mind Hacks and lecturer at the University of Sheffield, Dr Tom Stafford discusses this saying:-

"Both slot machines and email follow something called a 'variable interval reinforcement schedule which has been established as the way to train in the strongest habits. This means that rather than reward an action every time it is performed, you reward it sometimes, but not in a predictable way. So with email, usually when I check it there is nothing interesting, but every so often there's something wonderful - an invite out, or maybe some juicy gossip - and I get a reward."

Another industry that uses Variable Ratio (VR) reinforcement schedules is video gaming.  In the research paper “Video game structural characterisitics - A new psychological taxonomy” it describes how powerful operant conditioning techniques can be for players saying:-

“Players respond rapidly and persistently to the reward features in video games, such as XP and points, rare items, and meta-game rewards. These features are core components of the variable reinforcement schedule, which is known to create a persistent pattern of responding to a stimulus over time that is resistant to behavioural extinction."

Video games build on this however using a number of different schedules - continuous, interval and ratio - in a combined way to create what is called a compound schedule which may superimpose two or more different and overlapping schedules to gain maximum effect. Just as a gamer is accomplishing one mission they have already started on another; in this way, using overlapping and compound schedules, game designers keep the players involved which leads to sticky and sometimes "addiction" like behaviours.

In the research study "Understanding and Assisting Excessive Players of Video Games”, authors King and Delfabbro (2009a) found that overlapping quests and objectives (i.e., concurrent schedules of reinforcement) in video games kept players playing for longer periods than games without these features.  The report also detailed how the use of VR schedules could also cause game players to carry out behaviours that are repetitive or boring, simply to chase the reward saying:- 

 “The variable-ratio reinforcement schedules in video games and participants’ need to complete goals often produced what was termed ‘grinding’ behaviour. Grinding refers to the repetition of an action or series of actions in a video game in order to obtain a reward."

Speaking about this behaviour, one player stated how he "played the same level 10 times to get the full set of armour. [It] gets frustrating but you have to do it if you want the items"

This is really interesting because it suggests that the power of the right mix of reinforcement schedules can actually mask the more mundane actions required to achieve it.

Whilst people obviously consider themselves unique and with their own individual decision making processes, the reality is that people tend to respond consistently to the same kinds of environment.  Keeping with the video game theme, it’s interesting that research has shown that it's more about the design of the game mechanics than the individual gamers characteristics that drives usage.  The research paper entitled “The role of Structural Characteristics in Problem Video Game Playing” pointed this out saying:-

"In particular, ‘structural characteristics’, defined as those features that facilitate the acquisition, development, and maintenance of playing behaviour irrespective of the individual’s psychological, physiological or socioeconomic status, have been shown to play an important role in explaining the appeal of gambling activities."

Further examining what makes video games “sticky”, the psychology book Mind at Play by Loftus and Loftus (1983) showed that the appeal of video games was a blend of variable-ratio and fixed-interval schedules which were intended by designers to be “addictive”.  They noted that key aspects of this are that players are:-

  1. Often reinforced almost immediately for correct play
  2. These rewards for good game play are of large [perceived] magnitude (i.e., the provision of 150 points appearing more significant than 15 points)
  3. Rewarded on numerous concurrent reinforcement schedules

So, back to the question at hand - If we can understand what makes someone use and continue to use a loyalty program - like they do a video game - then we can truly design a program that works harder and is more rewarding.

Loyalty programs, in part, already rely on the principle of positive reinforcement whereby when an event or stimulus is presented (e.g. points) as a consequence of a behaviour then the behaviour goes on to increase.  It’s this behavioural psychology that underpins much of the change we see within customer loyalty.

However for the majority of loyalty programs, whether explicitly designed in or not, there is only one reinforcement schedule which is the continuous issuance of points in response to a purchase.  From the customer perspective, every time I buy I get points which is much the same as the animal in the Skinner box which gets food every time the lever is pressed.  

The problem for these loyalty programs is that we already know that this continuous reinforcement schedule is the least likely to result in long term ongoing behaviour - we’re essentially designing in program extinction from the get go.

The second issue is that as previously discussed, our brains are increasingly becoming used to managing constant distraction - honing our orientating responses.  In a world where there is always another notification to respond to, another Facebook post to view, another email to read, any loyalty program has got to be able to cut through to compete with this.  With so many things fighting for our attention, the larger the gap between the behaviour and the stimulus, the more likely our brain will not link these two activities and the more likely we won’t get the full benefit of this positive reinforcement.  

This starts to manifest itself within loyalty program behaviour - customers will typically continue to swipe their card at point of sale because this is a learned (or prompted) behaviour - but it’s done passively.  There is no stimulus driving this current behaviour and so its less likely we’re able to influence it at this point in time.  Trying to get customers to then change or uplift their actual behaviour doesn’t work because there is no linkage between the behaviour and the reward/stimulus - the behavior has become inconsequential.

To create a loyalty program that works for consumers and works for brands, we have to ensure that the ’structural characteristics’ of the program provide a number of different engagement mechanics  - reinforcement schedules - so that we create a persistent pattern of responding to a stimulus over time that is resistant to behavioural extinction

As the research shows, this behavioural design works in gambling and it works in video games - some would argue it works too well.  However there is already evidence that it works within loyalty programs.  Some programs that do work well have many of these characteristics with a good blend of compound schedules.

For example, in a classic frequent flyer program there can be a continuous reinforcement schedule around miles earned for flights, but these are overlapped with fixed ratio schedules such as collecting towards tiering and benefits like companion tickets.  Whilst these are not necessarily using the most powerful variable ratio (VR) reinforcement schedule, they still manage to engage members through compound reinforcement schedules.

This also brings into focus gamification - that new entrant into loyalty program design - and starts to explain why, when implemented well it can truly accelerate program engagement.  Whether expressed as access to time limited deals, unlocking of recognition or achievement of challenges, gamification allows the loyalty marketer to superimpose additional, overlapping reinforcement schedules including variable ratio to gain maximum impact and benefit.  This isn’t just theory either - we’ve seen examples of this whereby simply switching a recognition mechanic from a fixed ratio to a variable ratio has resulted in a 33% increase in ongoing usage.

Yet loyalty programs continue to be launched and continue to under perform.

As loyalty marketers its imperative that we understand why loyalty programs work, why consumers respond to them and how to make them work better for all.   In the words of B F Skinner “A failure is not always a mistake, it may simply be the best one can do under the circumstance.  The real mistake is to stop trying"

Sunday, 16 November 2014

Digital - A Coming of Age

141316083 toddler tablet

Within any generation there is always someone who is a link between the old order of things and the new.

We’ve just commemorated 100 years since the First World War started, and for me it feels remote, but real.  I didn’t know anyone who served, but my grandparents did who I knew, so I feel a connection.  With the Second World War, things are different.  When I was 10, I remember celebrating at school 40 years since the end of the war.  At 10 that seemed a long way past, but my grandparents served in it and could bring it to life with stories and artefacts.  For my kids though, all of this is a fading memory - stories we tell, but it may as well be like the Battle of Waterloo.

This connection between the old order and the new is explored in a book I’m currently reading called The End of Absence by Michael Harris.  In it, he discusses the time we’re in now and how anyone born after 1985 is essentially a digital native - someone who has never experienced a world without the internet; a world without always on connectivity.  For us others - those born before this time - we’re essentially digital immigrants.  Describing this group, Harris says:-

“For those of us who have lived both with and without the vast, crowded connectivity the Internet provides, these are the few days when we can still notice the difference between Before and After […] there’s a single difference that we feel most keenly; and it’s also the difference that future generations find hardest to grasp.  That is the end of absence - the loss of lack.  The day dreaming silences in our lives are filled; the burning solitudes are extinguished."

This is thought provoking stuff.  Realising that my kids (and a lot of those I now work with), just simply think differently.  They’ve never experienced a time when there was genuinely nothing there.  No kids telly on, nothing on demand, no chat, no connectedness.  When I tell my son to get off his computer, I turn around to see him on his phone.  Kick him off his phone and he’s flicked the telly on.  It takes real effort to switch everything off so he’ll actually consider walking out the door to call for friends… and then they sit around their house playing Xbox.  I tried.

So this got me thinking about the implication of this within the working environment.

For many of us, we work in companies established pre-1985 or staffed with management from before this time.  We have computers, tablets and smartphones; intranets, instant messaging and email.  We even have social networks for staff, with “friends” and wall posts and “status updates”. We’re thoroughly modern and fill every piece of time, every empty space within some activity.  Responding to a ping on the phone, an email arrived - we sit in meetings only half listening as we type on our laptops and then check our phones.  This is a state Harris references and one that writer Linda Stone referred to back in 1998 as “continuous partial attention”.

Yet despite this, we’re not as modern as we like to think.  

Many companies still have a Digital department of some kind or a Head of Digital role - as if all things digital is somehow separate to what we do.  It’s as if we’re in both the Before and the After - one part of the company in the pre-1985, pre-digital age and the other ring-fenced in the digital age.  This does some ludicrous and you can’t imagine a company such as Facebook or Google having a Head of Digital role - they are simply digital companies (although strangely they do).  The point is, the world has changed, people have changed, but the way we do business seems to still be a mismatch of old and new.

This point was brought to life in an article I was reading about airlines entitled Passengers Become Data Mines as Ryanair to Emirates Hone Offers.  In it, Ryanair CEO Michael O’Leary is quoted as saying:-

"I used to say that my ideal customer had a pulse and a credit card, but I’ve revised that view radically. […] In the next five years, with each of my 90 million customers, I’ll know when you’re traveling, where you’re traveling, and I can send you a direct offer.”

This shocked me.  

We’re in 2014, this is a relatively new airline (setup in the 1980’s) and yet it seemed a surprise to them that there may be value in the data they hold and process for 90m customers.  This is though also understandable because companies still aren’t digital natives - they still have their digital marketing and data analysis functions somehow separate to their older, more established traditional sales and marketing functions.  They’re an add on or an extension rather just being one single company.

If we go back to Marketing 101 and the 4Ps of the marketing mix we have Product, Place, Price and Promotion - this was something created in the 1960s by marketer Edmund Jerome McCarthy - a set of marketing tools based on the age but which is still taught today.  

A company like Ryanair has really focused on these 4P’s - it’s “Price” has been refined by pairing back its “Product".  By choosing carefully the airports it uses to get the best rate for a given destination even if it’s not quite the best airport in terms of distance, it has truly honed “Place”.  Promotion you could argue has been a mixed affair, but there probably isn’t a person alive in the UK who doesn’t know the airline, it’s CEO and the kind of message he had long stood for (such as removing toilets from planes).

But within this 4Ps mix, there is nothing about the customer.  It’s the old world order of making a product people want, at a price they are willing to pay - and then shouting about it loudly in the right places.  It’s all push.

Take a look at the new world however through a different lens.

Freemium models support many of the latests products/services, with apps (and some products) giving away their product in the knowledge that they can monetise customers either through targeted advertising or in-app purchases - and this is where data comes into play as a key part of the marketing mix.  Even airlines have a form of this with their ancillary services - the basic service is paired right back and then customers are encouraged to top this up with ancillary services as they need - a kind of pick and mix of products.  This is all pull.  

Speaking of this, CEO O’Leary is quoted as saying:-

"Ryanair’s data will let the carrier know how often travelers head to particular destinations, whether they travel alone or as a couple or group, if they routinely book insurance or car rental, and be able to customize its offers accordingly and target the passengers with special offers […] We know who you are [and] the clever airlines are going to make a fortune in the next 10 years”

This thing which will make a fortune is the missing piece - it’s the digital native addition to the marketing mix.  It’s the bit about the customer, about what they do and about what they want.  

It’s personalisation and it is truly the 5th “P” of the marketing mix.  I’m not the first to point this out, but it really is the difference between the Before and the After.  The increased connectivity and the computing power, scale and flexibility this has afforded, as well as the increased expectation of a customer base in “continuous partial attention” mode means that personalisation is critical to success.

As we transition from companies and people born of this pre-digital age to the next generation of digital natives, there will be change, there will be new ways of doing things.  We cannot stop it but for many of us, and for many of the companies we work for, we’ve yet to embrace it.  In the book End of Absence, Harris says of this:-

“Technology is neither good nor evil.  The most we can say about it is this: It has come. […] We can only judge, only really profit from judging, the decisions we each make in our interactions with those technologies.  How shall we live now?  How will you?"