Challenge for CPG: Focus on the basket, not the trolley

I have to admit I love Shreddies.

Little woven parcels of wholegrain goodness which, if you listen to the marketing blurb from Nestle, are lovingly hand knitted by a nana called Pearl and her friends.  They have their own Facebook page and Twitter account.  Part of British life since 1953, over 3m people in the UK seem to agree that its a tasty start to the day.

When we go shopping, I ask the kids to go grab a box of Shreddies and they quickly grab it and drop it into the trolley.

The problem is, they didn’t grab a box of Shreddies.

Instead, they grabbed a box of Harvest Morn Malted Wheaties because I’m shopping in Aldi, now just about the 6th largest grocery chain in the UK.  In fact, Alid and Lidl between them have attracted over 50% of households to shop with them - thats 13m people.  With sales for Aldi up 30 percent on the previous period and an aim to double UK stores by 2021, it’s a trend that doesn’t look like it’s set to stop any time soon.

You only need to look at Germany, the heartland of the so called hard discounters to see the effect this could have where they dominate with 44% of the market.

The reason is obvious - consumers are saving a tonne of cash!

For example, I get around 625g of Malted Wheaties for 1/3 the price of 500g of Shreddies.  The price today for 500g of Shreddies is £2.49 (49.8p/100g), for Aldi Malted Wheaties its 99p (15.8p/100g).  Overall, these types of savings have translated to pretty much a 50% cut in my household food bill.  Great for me, not so great for Tesco who used to have my loyalty and my purchases.

However, whilst we hear a lot about the woes of Tesco et al., we don’t hear too much in the press about the packaged goods brands and the impact it’s having on them.  I buy Malted Wheaties not just because they are cheap, but also because thats the only choice I have - almost everything in Aldi is own-label which means the more market share they get, the less market share the consumer brands will have.

This isn’t something that might happen in the future - it’s happening now.  

A recent report from IRi showed that the UK saw the biggest decline in grocery sales since the second world war.  Compared to the first half of 2013, there was a decline in sales of CPG products across all UK supermarkets by 1.2% in value and 3.2% in volume.  This at a time when brand promotions themselves are at an all time high.

A report by McKinsey back in 2010 entitled "Trends that will shape consumer goods industry" forewarned of this when it highlighted one of the top 5 trends to be that of “The shift to value”, with consumers looking for ways to save money and to trade down.  The report suggested that CPG brands were looking to address the issue head on with more competitive pricing through the use of scale, product sizing and finding ways to work with or displace private label products.

The problem with fighting on price alone though is that this simply erodes category value over the long-term.  

Speaking about this issue last year, P&G UK Managing Director Irwin Lee indicated that 5 years ago, brands excluding P&G sold about two-thirds of their volume at an average of 33% off - this had now risen to 80% of volume with an average deal size of over 40%.  To address this, Lee set out the P&G strategy, saying:-

“Our focus is on value creation to complement, if not offset, the over-reliance on unsustainable value give away. There is nothing proprietary in price promotions. We believe promotions win quarters, but true innovation wins decades.”

As Lee points out, consumers need more reasons to buy the product than price alone. Innovation is part of the equation, however all products can be copied as private label shows and with the emergence of the hard discounter “private label only” stores such as Aldi, this battle just got harder.  Brands are no longer fighting for premium shelf space but instead are fighting for customer head space.  

Consumers are now shopping in both hard discounters and traditional stores - buying the bulk of their weekly shop at a low price and the little extras at the one of the big 4.   Those little extras are also increasingly being done via an online trip from established e-commerce brands like Amazon or dedicated online grocers like Peapod or Ocado.  Some brands are even experimenting with their own dedicated online solutions such as P&G with its P&G e-store.

This is leading to the relationship between the brand and the consumer to become more fragmented.  No longer able to simply pay for in-store promotions and positioning to reach consumers, brands now need to look to build direct relationships with consumers.

The challenge for brands then is not how to get into the trolley - thats where the discounters win - but how to get into the basket; how to convince customers to make that extra trip just for them.  This is heart vs mind; emotion vs rational.

There are many tactics to achieve this such as advertising, digital couponing, receipt scanning or on-pack codes, but what is really needed is a co-ordinated and long-term customer relationship strategy.  Some might call this loyalty marketing - I’d call it the future of CPG marketing. 

5 Reasons why Evian "Smart Object" creates a new CPG loyalty solution

Apple basically invented the phrase "There's an app for that" and promptly trademarked it.

Whilst a catchy advertising line however, what it neatly demonstrates is how Apple popularised the concept of small, situationally specific applications that do a single job very well.  Whether it's a mapping app, a camera app or a Scrabble app, people now have on average 41 different apps installed on their smartphones.

This trend though may not just be limited to smartphones and tablets.  There seems to be an emerging trend of "smart objects" or essentially real world apps.  Situationally specific devices which perform just one task and are starting to be used by brands to connect customers directly from the point of need to the point of supply.

Start-ups like Green Goose have been creating ways of connecting the physical world to the online world through their smart sensors and this is part of trend known as the internet of things, something i wrote about 12 months ago.

The world moves on however and so it was interesting to see that Evian in France has just launched their own real world app in the form of a fridge magnet that will place an order for a water delivery when pressed, simply using a wifi connection to do it.  Developed by French company Joshfire, the device was developed from scratch to provide this unique proposition - and potentially a new loyalty solution.

 
A previous example was launched by a pizza company in Dubai who had a fridge magnet that would automatically order your faviourite pizza when pressed and I suspect at the time was seen more as a novelty.  However, a major global brand like Evian changes the playing field a little.

There are 5 main reasons why this more than just a sales promotion novelty and has the potential instead to be a powerful loyalty mechanic.

1. Direct Channel - It allows Evian to build a direct connection between the customer and the brand, disintermediating the retailer from the solution who would normally "own" this relationship.

2. Reduces Price Sensitivity - For some CPG categories, as much as 88% of all sales can be while the product is on promotion so anything that takes price out of the equation will be welcomed.  This solution provides a simple way for a consumer to just make a purchase without comparison of competitor/promotional pricing.

3. Reduces Paradox of Choice - It's no surprise that consumers find it hard to stay loyal.  In the water category alone, a top UK supermarket has 55 still water options and 25 sparkling.  Having just one decision and one button to press makes that choice simple (and you don't need to carry it home!).  This "one-click" decision works for Amazon online and has served them well; it's almost as frictionless as you can get for a purchase process.

4. Point of Need - As marketers we're always trying to get to the consumer at the point of purchase.  This is why mobile and location are such hot topics - if I know when you're out shopping and near my store I can remind you I exist and send you an offer.  How about being there though when the customer first gets a need - when they run out of something, before they even head to the shops?
This is what the Evian solution provides.

When I've poured my last glass (or better still opened my last bottle), I just press a button to get another supply.  This potentially provides a direct dialogue with customers at a key point of need and a customer who has just consumed something is going to be much more open to a re-purchase (assuming they were satisfied).

5. Reward and Recognition - Although not part of the Evian solution at the moment, this is potentially the most powerful opportunity that this kind of solution opens up.  Being able to simply say to customers "this ones on us" is a really strong loyalty mechanic and would be very simple to implement.  Better still, there is no need for customers to enter on pack codes, collect labels or send in receipts - you have all the data you need, immediately.

Loyalty is all about reducing friction in a customer relationship and I think this Evian smart object is a fantastic example of how to do this well.  It won't work for every brand, but whether its a button for nappies in the nursery, toiler paper in the bathroom or beer in the games room, the opportunity for this solution is potentially massive.

twitter - The Swiss army knife of relationship marketing?

I'm increasingly amazed how quickly new technologies are becoming household names - in years past when I used to use Compuserve (remember that?) and ICQ, you'd never have seen them on the mainstream news, yet in recent years you can't move for updates on new online services.

Last year it was all about Facebook with news channels seeming to talk about it every other week – for 2009 however it has to be twitter - mainly driven by the antics of Stephen Fry (locked in a lift) and Jonathan Ross who are both avid tweeters and have made the service a household name. It is now starting to break out of the smaller eco-systems it has occupied and is becoming mainstream in a big way. DMNews points out that this time last year twitter was ranked at number 22 in terms of monthly web visits – it's now number 3 behind Facebook and Myspace and has just secured $35m in VC funding in the middle of one of the worst recessions.

People will have different opinions about what makes twitter great (or even be thinking "I don't get it") but I reckon the best thing about twitter is that with a maximum of 140 characters you're limited to short messages that are typically about the present – what you're doing right at this moment. You can't sit there and think about your tweet, planning the message you want to get across – its all about being open and telling it like it is – whether it's a status update, a comment on events or a rant, twitter allows you to get it off your chest - immediately.

People seem to tweet about anything and everything, with brands inevitably popping up in people's posts as well. In a recent article on Marketing Pilgrim the question was asked as to why Coca-Cola wasn't on twitter given that their brand pops up in tweets over 1000 times per day.

This got me thinking that FMCG brands like Coca-Cola do have one thing in common with tweets – and that is that the thought process for both is in the here and now – it's all about the present. People don't sit there and think about which brands they are going to buy – at best a customer will be considering categories – I need bread, milk, beer, pizza (you can see why my wife does the shopping) – but very rarely will a brand be strong enough that customers will consider it upfront. For brands the purchase decision is typically instant and emotional – when a customer is browsing a category they will pickup the brand they automatically recognise / is positioned in line of sight / is on special offer (tick all that apply).

The customer won't then give the brand a second thought until the time of consumption which may be days or even weeks later.

If you're a brand manager, you'll know this and so will be doing your best to make sure consumers are aware of and reminded of your product in the hope that when a customer does think about a purchase, your brand will benefit. Building loyalty to a brand though is all about building brand equity and isn't simply brand awareness – Woolworths was a well known brand, yet it still failed. Brand equity is about what consumers feel about a brand – consumers have to understand what it stands for, what it delivers and what makes it better than a competitor brand. If these messages aren't clear then there is no reason for continued loyalty (or initial purchase).

To make matters worse, what is important to consumers today can change over time as their tastes change, their budgets change and competitor products/communications change.

Many brands have no direct relationship with consumers and can sometimes be the last to know of these changes – seeing it first in their bottom line. In an ideal scenario brands would have a relationship with their customers, allowing easy, free flowing dialogue which enables them to understand issues a customer is having and to communicate what makes the brand special. Customer care-lines and websites have helped to open up brands to consumers, but these aren't really available when customers are thinking about a brand – either at point of purchase or consumption. What is a required is a means for consumers to feedback when they want to and when it's relevant – instantly - being able to update a brand on their thoughts – good or bad – or even to rant and to be updated when they want on their terms.

Using that most pervasive of technologies – the mobile phone – seems to be key to this, but services like SMS just don't appear to deliver.

This it seems to me is where twitter really comes into its own. Unlike SMS, twitter isn't charged per message so I'm not thinking "how much is this going to cost me", nor is it such as personal relationship – I'm fine with being a "friend" of Skittles on MySpace or Bebo but there is no way they are getting into my mobile address book.

Opt-in rates for SMS are also typically very low for brands and though this is in part due to perceived costs it is also due to the "interruptive" nature of SMS – when a message arrives I'll look it at almost immediately, but if it's not relevant you'll be sent "STOP" two seconds later. Twitter manages to solve these many issues, combining the immediacy (and increasingly availability via mobile), the "free" cost (normally hidden within overall data allowances) whilst supporting loosely coupled relationships and on-demand consumption.

Could this be the perfect communications channel? - Some brands seem to think so.

In the Telegraph it was reported that Tesco owned US brand Fresh & Easy was using twitter to inform customers and potential customers of special offers and new store openings. However, much more impressive I felt was its use of twitter to build direct dialogue. In one such exchange, a customer is reported as complaining about "sparse stock levels" in his local store, only to receive a reply highlighting "that levels tend to be a bit low at the end of the year due to shipping schedules". Now I know this won't help me with the question "where the heck are the pickled onions" when I'm in store, but answers (or simply acknowledgement) to questions like "why have you stopped stocking Silverspoon Sugar" - a personal gripe of mine last year – would be great.

So it seems to me that twitter offers brands that most elusive of things – a direct two-way relationship with consumers (see previous article of the value of customer feedback).

However I feel it could also offer so much more – the tracking of customer value.

Having followers is one thing and brands like Innocent are renowned for their blogs, newsletters and surprise and delight gifts at Christmas. The issue is a follower doesn't necessarily translate into a customer – sure it helps - but it doesn't tell you how often someone is purchasing your product, or even if they are purchasing it at all. To get this kind of insight many brands choose to run some kind of loyalty scheme or frequency marketing programme so they can get to know their customers – or at least some of them.

More recently many of the programmes I have worked on have been run using unique on-pack codes making the process more immediate though online entry – codes (and more importantly interest) are captured from the first product rather than waiting for someone to stick 20 coupons onto a form and mail it back 10 weeks later! Given that typically 1 customer redeeming can represent 50 customers who started collecting – getting to know the customer upfront can be very valuable for those brands wanting an ongoing dialogue – why talk to 10,000 redeemers when you can talk to 500,000 registrants.

Whilst on-pack collection schemes can work well for products consumed in-home as the label or packaging can be retained to be captured online later, for out of home consumption this can still prove challenging - I really don't want to have to keep an empty bottle and crisp packet (or two) in my pocket for the whole day.

Brands have tried to solve this issue by allowing customers to SMS codes in - think Coke Zone or Budbucks - however it can still be problematic for both sides. For the customer they're not sure of the cost and whether they will then be bombarded with ongoing marketing – for the brand the cost is typically absorbed so each SMS eats into margin which could have been used to reward the customer.

I really think twitter seems to provide an answer here to.

Allowing me to "tweet" my on-pack code means I'm not worried about the cost (and neither is the brand) and it removes concerns about ongoing marketing - I can read it when I want and if you send me stuff I don't want I can simply block it. Not only that but it also has the potential to provide a wider dialogue as messages not sent directly will be seen by all my followers - (@brandname 56G4K62KFIG4V) - letting all my friends and acquaintances know about my purchase (and potentially my Budweiser habit)

I've no doubt revenue models will change with twitter in the future as investors look to get some kind of return, but right now twitter is looking like the Swiss army knife of relationship marketing - providing a means for promoting offers, receiving direct response feedback, building relationships and tracking purchases.

Given the current cash-strapped climate and the phenomenal growth twitter is seeing, I think any marketer would be mad not to be looking at the benefits twitter can offer today.

PS. If you're still trying to get your head around Facebook – go check out the twitter help for a crash course

T'ain't What You Do (It's the Way That You Do It)

I know I've spoken about this before but I'm intrigued by how many FMCG brands count success based simply on the number of baskets their product is in within a 52 week period. It's even more surprising when you consider that for many brands, increasing this penetration is accomplished through free product such as buy one get one free – essentially paying customers to purchase the product. I wasn't expecting however a brand to actually pay customers to buy their product but this is exactly what General Mills are doing in the US with its latest campaign, providing gift cards in denominations of $5, $10 and $25 for 1 in 20 purchases.

Now this is pure play sales promotion and although the prize is instant win cash it could easily be any kind of prize draw item. Sales promotion by its very nature is there to promote sales and the brand will know exactly what will happen – there will be a spike in purchases as new consumers are attracted to the offer, existing consumers bring forward purchases and competitor consumers switch – all for the chance of winning something. The hope – and it's normally a slim one – is that a small percentage of the customers who purchase the product because of the offer will enjoy the product and stay with the brand.

The American poet and physician Oliver Wendell Holmes once said "The main part of intellectual education is not the acquisition of facts but learning how to make facts live" – essentially not acquiring something simply for the sake of it without due consideration as to how it can be "brought to life". This is however what many marketers do today with their acquisition campaigns – looking to acquire as many sales as possible without thinking about how the customers behind these can then be retained.

As a loyalty marketer it's easy to point the finger and say you'd be better off spending the money on your existing customers and retaining them – going on to then spout some facts and figures about how much cheaper it is to retain a customer than to acquire one. However, a dogged focus on just retention is almost as dangerous as a single focus on acquisition. All customers will churn at some point – whether this is because of the tactics of another brand, a maturing/changing of tastes or just because the reaper has "come a knockin" – you can't keep a customer forever.

An alternative approach though is what we term "Acquisition for Retention" – this is a focus on acquiring customers which you are looking to retain. This doesn't change the techniques used to acquire customers - sales promotion is still an important tool in supporting this – but what it does is ensure that the type of customers you acquire are the ones which are likely to want to continue buying your brand.

For example, if you have a large promotion with a prize such as "win a holiday to the Caribbean", the type of customer you will attract is someone who wants to go to the Caribbean. If the offer is rich enough and compelling enough they may not actually want your product at all – just the chance to win the prize. The General Mills promotion will fit into this type of offer – customers attracted to it will simply like the idea of winning cash.

In order to create promotions that attract the right kind of customers you need to keep in mind three golden rules:-

• Desirability – Understand your customers and what motivates them – select rewards which resonate well with your core customer segments and are a little less ordinary
  
• Achievability – Ensure rewards are achievable for different customer segments – whether this is an on-pack collection programme or a sales promotion prize draw, customers will tune out quickly if they feel the effort doesn't justify the reward
  
• Brandability – Ensure any rewards reflect and deliver upon the brand promise – the rewards are an extension of your brand so choose carefully who and what you want to be associated with
  

Walkers Crisps in the UK ran a campaign recently called "Brit Trips" that fits these rules perfectly. The campaign allowed consumers to collect on-packs codes from promotional packs and to enter these within a website to build up a points balance. These points could then be exchanged for a range of UK based activities including ½ price entry to attractions like Sea Life or theme parks as well as hotels and holiday parks. The campaign aligned well to the three golden rules with:-

• Desirability - The promotion worked well with its core customer base of families – providing family orientated rewards

• Achievability- The promotion fitted the economic climate well – allowing families to save money during school holidays with just 2-3 purchases providing a reward

• Brandability - Walkers has picked up on the recent trends for locally sourced food and has played to the fact that it uses 100% British sourced potatoes. The "Brit Trips" campaign helped to re-enforce this brand positioning by focusing on rewards which are local and British - helping to drive this point home with its consumers.

The success of this campaign can be easily seen from its online usage - visitors to the Walker Crisps brand sites peaked at 575,000 in April 2008 (source: Nielsen NetRatings April 2008) and year on year grew from 17,000 in June 2007 to 444,000 in June 2008 – an increase of 2,575%! Although Walkers spent a lot on media to promote the campaign, reportedly over £5m, what really worked well was a promotion that was targeted to their core audience with a selection of rewards that resonated well.

So that's the acquisition part of "Acquisition for Retention" sorted, what about the retention part?

Stay tuned for a subsequent post when I'll discuss what to do with the customers once you have them…

(Post title: "T'ain't What You Do (It's the Way That You Do It)" is a song written by jazz musicians Melvin "Sy" Oliver and James "Trummy" Young. It was first recorded in 1939 by both Jimmie Lunceford and Ella Fitzgerald)

Weather the storm with your brand un-tarnished

Many brands and retailers who are feeling the pinch may be in a slight quandary – do we lower prices to retain more of our customer volume or keep things as they are and try to maintain more of our customer value – in fact is it possible to both maintain volume and value?

Brad Farrell, skincare brand manager for L'Oréal Paris answered the question about price quite succinctly when he said at a recent event "We don't want to see huge price cuts that will create a lower-priced brand, because you don't want to tarnish your brand. When this is all said and done, you still have your brand reputation to uphold."

Commenting in the early 90's in the wake of the coffee wars, Jeff Caso, director of Nestle's coffee business had a similar sentiment, but highlighted the struggle many brands wrestle with: ''If maintaining market share involves jumping off a bridge, I am not jumping off a bridge. But I am not sure the other guys see it that way."

So for many brands, overt price cutting cannot be high on the agenda – but maintaining the status quo in the face of increased price based competition is tough.

Knowing Brand Loyalists

Interestingly customer value is not always tied directly to customer volume. In most industries, a high percentage of revenue (70-80%) typically comes from a small percentage of customers (20-30%). For some brands like Prada this can be even more concentrated with a reported 50% of sales coming from just 5% of customers. With such a large percentage of customer value coming from so small of segment of customers, the most important question for both brands and retailers should be "who are these customers?".

Many successful retail loyalty schemes such as Tesco Clubcard are reported to be able to track 70% or more of their purchases to individual customers, providing real insight on who drives value and what products/services they purchase.

Focusing attention on these key customer segments with communications and non-price related offers can help to maintain revenue levels even when a larger number of less valuable customers may fall away.

Adding Brand Value

Customer volume is still important however – they contribute to fixed costs and ultimately will have more to give in the future. So is it possible to put in place strategies which retain more price sensitive customers?

One way to do this is to look back at the 4P's of marketing – Product, Price, Place, Promotion. The first thing that strikes you here is that there are three other "P's" apart from just Price.

Product – The product itself can be modified to make it less costly without cutting back on the quality. Many brands use size as a tactic here – making smaller versions of the same product so that it becomes more accessible. This can also have the positive effect of introducing new customers to the product who previously couldn't justify it as well as potentially allowing higher margin pound for pound than the larger version. More accessible brands may be able to also achieve this through a change of packaging – using different materials to lower production costs whilst not compromising on quality. As highlighted in brandgymblog, Hellmanns Mayonnaise did this in Canada by changing the packing from glass to plastic.

Place – Looking at other distribution channels, whether its online or different retail sectors can provide different cost models that allow the product to be made more accessible whilst not devaluing the brand within its heartland. This can be a double-edged sword though – witness brands such as Burberry and Cristal – which is why many premium cosmetics and clothing brands like Levi's have actively fought to keep them out of discounters.

Promotion – Adding additional value to a purchase rather than lowering the price of it can be enough for many customers to swing the purchase decision back from a rational one to an emotional one. The Anchor Make-A-Moo promotion is a very good example of this which has allowed the brand to maintain market share in what is seen to be a highly homogenous market.

Using both these techniques so that you know who buys your brand and can target the added value is by far the best approach. L'Oreal has been very successful in this area through the implementation of a company wide CRM system. Commenting on this in their white paper, Daniela Giacchetti, Head Customer Strategy Officer said "this has seen a 57% decrease in the volume of direct mail [and associated costs]. Through more accurate targeting a 62% response rate."

Having a customer retention focus that combines CRM and doesn't rely on price discounting activities is why companies as diverse as Anchor, Tesco and L'Oreal may be better able to weather the storm with their brands un-tarnished.

Boom and Bust Marketing

Despite assurances from Gordon Brown at the Labour conference in 2000 that we would not return to the days of boom and bust, here we are in 2008, tumbling out of a boom and right into a bust. There are probably many reasons for this that I'm not qualified to discuss, but it would appear one of the primary reasons is an overheated and overvalued housing market. A market which created a great amount of perceived wealth and was encouraged and hailed as an indicator of our successful economy.

There was no real recognition that it was essentially a bubble waiting to burst – like the internet bubble before it and the tulip market bubble way back in the 17^th century. Opinions differ as to why they form – whether it's simply greed or herd mentality – but it's generally only in retrospect when the bubble has burst that we see it for what it was and people begin to recognise that demand goes down as well as up.

What's interesting is that while we see this at a macro level, its happening all the time in different markets. Through my work with various FMCG brands I was amazed to see that the number one measure of success for many brand marketers was penetration – the number of people who have the brand's product in their basket in a given period of time.

The movement of this measure in a positive direction has become critical to many and being the number 1 or 2 brand in penetration terms is the place most brand marketers want to be. Changing this measure can be relatively simple though – in the short term – by creating a sales promotion which targets a large number of people with a very compelling offer.

The problem is, the gain from this sales promotion is not real – many of the brand's existing customers have simply bought forward to take advantage of the offer and many others have only purchased it because of the offer. Sure it has introduced new people to the brand – some of whom will stay – but no where near the amount of people who were contained in the spike in penetration.

Now there is nothing wrong with this approach – generating awareness and creating trial is a key activity for any brand - the problem is believing that the spike in penetration is reflective of the actual customer base.

Where brands believe this, thus starts a never ending cycle of sales promotion – creating new promotions to follow quickly on the heels of the previous promotion so as to prop-up the penetration figure over time. This can be costly on two accounts – firstly the brand is literally buying this extra penetration with free product and secondly they are conditioning their existing customers to only purchase through offers.

As times get tough and budgets are reviewed, this constant over spend on sales promotion is going to result in some brands coming back down to earth with a bang as the penetration bubble bursts.

Ideally brands should be looking at how to maintain market share and grow this in a controlled and responsible way – not focusing on price reductions and volume lifts but focusing on brand values and recognising and rewarding existing customers. Sales promotion will always have its place to drive awareness and trial, but acquisition without a focus on retention is a slippery slope to boom and bust.

As Gordon Brown said a little prematurely back then - no return to short-termism – no return to boom and bust.